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After another year of positive markets in 2025, we now turn the calendar and wonder what 2026 will bring. While we saw plenty of cautionary signs this year, the stock market climbed its wall of worry to new heights. How long can this continue is the question on everyone’s mind as wall street and main street don’t agree
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Troubling signs have continued to appear throughout this year on consumer debt. Automobile loans have been one of the main areas displaying the most stress lately. Recent delinquency and repossession numbers have been on the rise.
Signs of market froth continue to appear, as margin debt has reached a new record high. That and other indications show investors risk appetite continuing to grow. The stock market has continued to stretch higher this month and continues to set records both in price and in some valuation metrics.
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While consumer spending has continued to slow down this year, the big tech companies have spent so much on data centers in 2025 that their spending is now contributing more to economic growth than consumer spending. The main players investing at staggering levels to build and upgrade data centers are Microsoft, Google,
The stock market has continued its upward trend over the last month as the S&P 500 has reached all-time highs. In this newsletter I’ll highlight some continued divergences with market momentum and the complacency shown and also touch on some of the changes coming with the recent bill passage in Washington.
While the stock market continues to remain elevated and just a few percentage points off all-time highs (S&P 500), the economy also appears to continue to chug along. A lot of the noise of tariffs that caused volatility earlier in the year has dissipated for now as trade negotiations continue. That can obviously change in a hurry. Many that were calling for imminent recession back in April have backed off that call.
What a difference a few weeks can make. While the financial media was expecting continued calamity and downside in the stock market in early April, the S&P 500 now sits at about where it was before the big drop that started on April 3rd. Does this mean we are out of the woods now and all clear? There is still a lot to prove on a technical basis as the S&P 500 has entered an important area of resistance.
